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Above Normal Hurricane Season, Despite Quiet Start - 04/08/14

Think nothing is happening in the tropics, think again.  The Atlantic cauldron is bubbling and storms are a brewing!

So Far:
As of August 13, we have seen 4 tropical cyclones (Tropical Storm Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) in our 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.
The season runs from June 1 through November 30, peaking on September 10. However, the most active time is usually from mid-August, September, and October.

NOAA Update:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA updated its Atlantic hurricane season outlook which continues to show an above normal season with the possibility that it could be very active.
In an article on NOAA.gov, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, Gerry Bell, Ph.D., says "Our confidence for an above normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized."  He also pointed out that 2 of the 4 storms this year have formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which he says, historically, is an indicator of an active season.

Ingredients Helping:
Above average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, in place now, help to turn storms into tropical storms and hurricanes.

New Numbers:
The NOAA update calls for a 70 percent chance of an above normal season
13-19 Named storms | Normal: 12
6-9 Hurricanes | Normal 6
3-5 Major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5) | Normal: 3

Difference from pre-season forecast:
The difference from the pre-season forecast, issued in May, shows a reduced expectation for extreme levels of activity since La Nina is not expected to develop and help strengthen storms that form.

Track any tropical storms on our KEYETV interactive hurricane tracker:
http://keyetv.com/weather/features/hurricane-tracker/

-Allison

Meteorologist Allison Miller
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