Let's Hope I'm Wrong - Gulf Storm Chances - 12/01/13
The StormTracker Team (yeah that's what we call ourselves) here at KEYE are focusing a lot of our attention on the Gulf of Mexico where a storm near the Yucatan Peninsula has a 60% chance of becoming a Tropical System. This area of low pressure has potential to bring a lot of rain to the Texas area -- or does it?
When we forecast Tropical Storms we tend to look a lot at the upper wind pattern. This is what is going to steer the storm and ultimately bring it towards land. Right now the upper air patterns are doing what they've been doing all summer -- bringing an easterly wind into Mexico. Several models are putting this storm exactly where the upper wind is steering with 2 outlying models pushing it more northward which could bring it into south Texas.
There is still a lot of time for this storm to mature and change its direction. I mean, we're not forecasting rain until late Monday next week. However, I personally think this storm is going to stay south of our area and only bring isolated rain chances to Central Texas. The Majority of the rain will stay near Brownsville and South Texas. Let's hope I'm wrong. Hurricanes, Tropical Depressions, and Tropical Storms can all change within a matter of hours -- so let's hope the forecast changes for the better.
We've kept rain in the forecast for next week but we may pull those rain chances down dramatically if the weather pattern stays as it is. Stay tuned...
Check out the Tropics on our KEYE-TV Hurricane Tracker site: