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Increasing Rain Chances

Wednesday, August 27th, 2014

The focus for the rain Wednesday stayed close to the coast.  That's because a disturbance in the Gulf is pulling in more of a northerly wind flow - which has brought us some slightly drier air, less likely for storms to fire.  That changes Thursday when our afternoon rain chance reaches 20%, we'll up that to 40% Friday and keep in some scattered showers and storms (30% chance) for Saturday. 

That same disturbance in the Gulf prompted NOAA's Hurricane Hunters to send out a plane to investigate whether the storm could be upgraded to a Tropical Depression - what they found was no closed circulation and a storm too weak to merit the upgrade.  So there's a 20% chance at this point that it could develop into something more.  Although it's weak, that system will continue tracking westward and likely reach the South Texas coast in the next couple days.  It will also likely enhance our rain chances, especially for spots south and east of Austin.

At the same time, an area of low pressure tracking through the Rockies will dip a little closer to us by Friday and Saturday - and serve to increase our rain chances especially to the north and west of Austin.  So while no widespread heavy rain is expected, we've got two different systems converging to bring Central Texas the best rain chances in weeks.

How much rain?  The jury's still out, but I think many areas could get 1/2"-1" of rain from Thursday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.  The best chances each day will be between about 2-7 PM.  Labor Day Monday is looking dry at this time.

What's nice is that the extra clouds and better rain chances will likely hold temps down for us!  I've got an entire week's worth of highs in the 90s ahead!  Our average last 100-degree high for Camp Mabry is August 20th - so it's about time!  And while it's too soon to say we're done for the year with triple digit heat, at least we'll be getting a nice break.

In the Tropics, in addition to monitoring that low in the Gulf, Hurricane Cristobal is expected to track between the US and Bermuda and 1 other disturbance has very low development potential.  In the Pacific, Marie weakened to a tropical storm.


Wednesday Night: 75.  Mainly clear.  Winds: Light SE
Thursday: 97 Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers - best chance south/east.  Winds: SE 5-10
Friday: 95 Partly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers/storms.  Winds: SE 5-10 *Morning Low: 76
Saturday: 96 Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers/storms for tailgating, but should be dry for the Longhorns first home game of the season.  *Morning Low: 76  
Sunday: 98 Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers.  *Morning Low: 77
Labor Day Monday: 99 Partly cloudy.  *Morning Low: 76
Tuesday: 97 Partly cloudy with a 10% chance of showers.  *Morning Low: 76
Wednesday: 96 Partly cloudy with a 10% chance of showers.  *Morning Low: 75

Have a good one!

Update on the Bee Cave lightning strike around 4:40 PM Monday: The National Weather Service confirms the lightning strike was 3 miles from the thunderstorm where it originated.  This is often called "A Bolt Out of the Blue."  Lightning has been detected as far as 25 miles away from a thunderstorm which is why we urge you to be sky aware and lightning aware.  If you hear thunder, you're close enough to be struck by lightning.  The only safe places to be: in your car or in an enclosed building such a house or business.

Chief Meteorologist Chikage Windler

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KEYE TV Weather Anchors Chikage Windler Allison Miller Jordan Steele